how well the modeled data fit to the observed data?

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i am working on timeseries data set. i have gone through many video lectures for the timeseries analysis. all of them talk about decomposing the Time series data.
then modeling it for future predictions.
i have another scene for my thesis project. i have observed data and the simulated/ modeled data already.
both Time series are hourly stamped to show the water levels of a sea. i need to check how well the modeled data fit to the observed data?
i have been stuck in this issue since many weeks. please can anyone guide me a bit , what should i start with?
i have daily hourly data for 46 years. i have decomposed both timeseries into monthly TS, and yearly TS.
i have converted my data into timetables. the data is attached as a mat file .
Best Regards.
bushra raza
bushra raza on 11 Apr 2020
Hi, just use 'detrend' for the observed data set. then by using 'distribution fitter' , the following density fit is plotted.
please guide me, how to interpret it? and like 95% variabilty of simulated data to observed data

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